Language:English
Deiveson Figueiredo v Payton Talbott
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Deiveson Figueiredo (Local)
Prediction 15.41%6.49fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +0.597%
Kelly +0.701%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.23%15.41%15.31%18.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.895.956.7520.83%16.98%16.81%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Payton Talbott (Visit)
Prediction 84.59%1.18fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -3.13%
Kelly -25.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.91%84.59%84.69%85.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.131.131.1494.34%88.66%88.50%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deiveson Figueiredo (Local): 15.41%; Payton Talbott (Visit): 84.59%. For Deiveson Figueiredo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.49. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.03%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +4.03%E +0.597%K +0.701%G +0.028% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.177%E +0.027%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 20:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.177%E +0.027%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.11%E -5.50%K -55.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 01:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV +0.023%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.06%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-04 01:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.36%E -0.213%K -0.253%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-04 01:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.36%E -0.213%K -0.253%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-04 01:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -1.36%E -0.213%K -0.253%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -8.64%E -8.00%K -108.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 14:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV -2.91%E -0.461%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 01:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -3.68%E -0.588%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -3.68%E -0.588%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -3.68%E -0.588%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 20:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.45%E -0.717%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 23:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -5.99%E -0.982%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-30 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -6.76%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -7.53%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -7.53%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 23:57 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.53%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.53%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.53%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.11%E -5.50%K -55.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.96%EV -8.30%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.04%EV -4.42%E -3.91%K -33.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 01:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -9.07%E -1.54%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -10.61%E -1.83%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -5.26%E -4.70%K -43.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-04 01:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 16:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.69%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 13:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.23%E -2.77%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 15:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.23%E -2.77%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-01 15:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.23%E -2.77%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 19:52 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.23%E -2.77%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.23%E -2.77%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 21:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -18.32%E -3.46%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.81%EV -6.95%E -6.32%K -69.53%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-04 01:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -19.09%E -3.64%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -3.57%E -3.13%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 01:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.09%EV -26.02%E -5.42%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 81.91%EV -10.34%E -9.75%K -172.28%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-21 15:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.79% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 86.21% | 0.0% | 2026-10-04 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 0.4% | 2026-10-04 01:45 |
| Novig◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-10-04 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 01:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.03% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.97% | 2.3% | 2026-10-04 01:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.09% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 01:49 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.12% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 17:05 |