Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

David Richardson v Jimmie Pace Jr.

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

10%

90%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

David Richardson (Local)

Prediction 10.12%9.88fair odd

EV -3.83%

Edge -0.403%

Kelly -0.451%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.12%10.12%10.12%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.756.695.759.5017.39%14.95%17.39%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jimmie Pace Jr. (Visit)

Prediction 89.88%1.11fair odd

EV +1.56%

Edge +1.38%

Kelly +12.01%

Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.58%89.88%89.88%89.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.111.131.1393.46%89.69%88.50%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Richardson (Local): 10.12%; Jimmie Pace Jr. (Visit): 89.88%. For Jimmie Pace Jr. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.11. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -41.79%E -7.27%K -8.80%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV +1.56%E +1.38%K +12.01%G +0.187%	5.9%	2026-06-19 03:30
LeoVegas🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -41.79%E -7.27%K -8.80%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV +1.56%E +1.38%K +12.01%G +0.187%	5.9%	2026-06-19 03:29
Grosvenor🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -41.79%E -7.27%K -8.80%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV +1.56%E +1.38%K +12.01%G +0.187%	5.9%	2026-06-19 03:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -3.83%E -0.403%K -0.451%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.83%E -3.58%K -54.74%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-19 23:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.