The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

David Mora v Claudio Pacella

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

David Mora (Local)

Prediction 16.08%6.22fair odd
EV +0.529%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.101%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.08%15.53%20.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.154.606.2521.74%19.42%21.74%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Claudio Pacella (Visit)

Prediction 83.92%1.19fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -10.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.72%83.92%84.47%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.171.1789.29%86.52%85.47%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Mora (Local): 16.08%; Claudio Pacella (Visit): 83.92%. For David Mora (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.529%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +0.529%E +0.085%K +0.101%G +0.001%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.18%E -4.58%K -39.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 16:30
FanDuel🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -0.276%E -0.044%K -0.053%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.34%E -3.80%K -30.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-20 15:05
Neds🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -6.71%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.01%E -5.37%K -50.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -6.71%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.01%E -5.37%K -50.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.41%EV -10.73%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.59%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 17:05
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -26.01%E -5.65%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -1.82%E -1.55%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.