Language:English
David Martinez v Marlon Vera
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
David Martinez (Local)
Prediction 73.02%1.37fair odd
EV -0.694%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%72.88%73.00%74.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.321.331.3678.74%75.66%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marlon Vera (Visit)
Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.526%
Kelly +0.715%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.59%27.12%27.00%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.353.7832.26%29.31%29.85%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Martinez (Local): 73.02%; Marlon Vera (Visit): 26.98%. For Marlon Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.26%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.74%EV +1.99%E +0.526%K +0.715%G +0.014% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.41%EV -5.08%E -3.90%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.59%EV +1.99%E +0.526%K +0.715%G +0.014% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 02:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.18%E +0.315%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.18%E +0.315%K +0.429%G +0.005% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.52%E -0.416%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.87%E -0.797%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 00:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -3.41%E -0.952%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -4.22%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-01 02:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.08%E -3.90%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 02:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -6.11%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 17:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 03:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-27 20:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-27 20:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -7.27%E -5.72%K -26.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-25 20:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.62%E -2.74%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.35%E -3.32%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 11:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -6.54%E -5.11%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 20:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-27 15:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -5.81%E -4.50%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 17:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.89%E -2.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.694%E -0.511%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -15.01%E -4.76%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-20 05:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.694%E -0.511%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -15.01%E -4.76%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-20 05:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -0.694%E -0.511%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -16.36%E -5.28%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -0.694%E -0.511%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -16.36%E -5.28%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-23 15:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.14% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.86% | 0.1% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-03-01 03:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 02:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.78% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.62% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.60% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 02:59 |