The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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David Martinez v Giannis Bachar

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 20:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

David Martinez (Local)

Prediction 77.30%1.29fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -10.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.80%77.30%77.41%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.261.2681.97%80.05%79.37%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Giannis Bachar (Visit)

Prediction 22.70%4.40fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%22.70%22.59%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.833.554.2528.17%26.12%28.17%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Martinez (Local): 77.30%; Giannis Bachar (Visit): 22.70%. For David Martinez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.26, with an expected value of -2.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -2.61%E -2.07%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -19.40%E -5.47%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.38%E -2.70%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 03:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.15%E -3.35%K -17.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.51%E -0.826%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 20:09
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.15%E -3.35%K -17.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.51%E -0.826%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 18:25
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.70%E -4.67%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.