Language:English
David Martinez v Dan Ige
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
David Martinez (Local)
Prediction 77.69%1.29fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -11.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.49%77.72%77.62%79.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.221.231.2587.72%81.69%81.63%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dan Ige (Visit)
Prediction 22.31%4.48fair odd
EV +4.87%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%22.28%22.38%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.204.104.7027.03%23.81%24.39%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Martinez (Local): 77.69%; Dan Ige (Visit): 22.31%. For Dan Ige (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.87%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -6.00%E -4.96%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +4.87%E +1.04%K +1.32%G +0.064% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -6.00%E -4.96%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +2.64%E +0.574%K +0.734%G +0.019% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.78%E -5.65%K -33.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.64%E +0.574%K +0.734%G +0.019% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.78%E -5.65%K -33.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.64%E +0.574%K +0.734%G +0.019% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 17:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.411%E +0.091%K +0.117%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.411%E +0.091%K +0.117%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.411%E +0.091%K +0.117%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.17%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV -0.928%E -0.209%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-12 21:16 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.90%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 22.10%EV -2.49%E -0.570%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -2.94%E -0.675%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-12 18:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -3.38%E -0.781%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 15:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.05%E -0.942%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.05%E -0.942%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 21:16 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.05%E -0.942%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 20:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.05%E -0.942%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 20:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -6.00%E -4.96%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.05%E -0.942%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV -5.39%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 21:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.28%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 21:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:18 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.45%E -3.61%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.51%E -2.08%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.89%E -2.31%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-12 21:16 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.89%E -2.31%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 17:21 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.00%E -4.96%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -10.75%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.98%E -3.33%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 17:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -2.89%E -2.31%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -14.09%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -5.22%E -4.28%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -14.09%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-12 21:13 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 76.45%EV -11.44%E -10.03%K -81.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.55%EV -17.44%E -4.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.55% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.45% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 21:16 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 21:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.31% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.69% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 21:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-09-12 19:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12% | 2.7% | 2026-09-12 21:16 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.98% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.15% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |