The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Davi Cabral v Douglas da Lapa

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 23:51 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Davi Cabral (Local)

Prediction 39.75%2.52fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.47%39.34%39.70%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.392.5743.48%41.74%41.84%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Douglas da Lapa (Visit)

Prediction 60.25%1.66fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -6.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%60.66%60.30%62.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.581.581.6064.94%63.45%63.49%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Davi Cabral (Local): 39.75%; Douglas da Lapa (Visit): 60.25%. For Davi Cabral (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV +2.16%E +0.840%K +1.37%G +0.030%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -7.22%E -4.69%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-13 23:34
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.41%E -1.40%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.60%E -2.25%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-13 23:15
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.60%E -1.92%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.60%E -2.25%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 23:29
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.60%E -1.92%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.20%E -2.64%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-13 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.60%E -1.92%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.81%E -3.04%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 23:00
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.39%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.81%E -3.04%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 22:49
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.39%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.41%E -3.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-13 22:49
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.39%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.41%E -3.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-13 22:49
ReBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.78%E -3.35%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -6.01%E -3.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-13 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.57%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.41%E -3.44%K -9.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-13 22:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.38%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.62%-0.0%2026-10-13 23:28
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 62.03%0.1%2026-10-13 23:30
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-10-13 23:35
Novig◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.1%2026-10-13 23:35
ProphetX◎2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%4.8%2026-10-13 23:30