The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Darryl Walker v Moustapha Diakhate

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 23:16 UTC

Final: Darryl Walker 0–1 Moustapha Diakhate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darryl Walker (Local)

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd
EV +12.65%
Edge +2.53%
Kelly +3.16%
Growth +0.400%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%22.53%23.15%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.853.635.0028.99%25.97%27.59%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moustapha Diakhate (Visit)

Prediction 77.47%1.29fair odd
EV -0.063%
Edge -0.049%
Kelly -0.219%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.94%77.47%76.85%80.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.251.281.2984.75%80.00%78.13%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darryl Walker (Local): 22.53%; Moustapha Diakhate (Visit): 77.47%. For Darryl Walker (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +12.65%E +2.53%K +3.16%G +0.400%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -8.59%E -7.28%K -47.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 23:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -11.01%E -2.79%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -7.81%E -6.56%K -41.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 22:49
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -14.39%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -0.063%E -0.049%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 13:54
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -22.27%E -6.46%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -0.838%E -0.655%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 16:39
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -22.27%E -6.46%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -0.838%E -0.655%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 16:40
Bally Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -22.27%E -6.46%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -0.838%E -0.655%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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