The School of Odds
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Darryl Walker v Moustapha Diakhate

2026-07-31 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darryl Walker (Local)

Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.839%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%25.83%25.73%26.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.683.703.7528.17%27.19%27.03%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moustapha Diakhate (Visit)

Prediction 74.17%1.35fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -11.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.84%74.17%74.27%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.261.251.3081.30%79.26%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Darryl Walker (Local): 25.83%; Moustapha Diakhate (Visit): 74.17%. For Darryl Walker (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -3.14%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.14%E -0.839%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-31 11:20
Unibet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.44%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.29%E -5.83%K -29.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-31 09:44
Grosvenor3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.44%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.29%E -5.83%K -29.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-31 09:44
Bally Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.44%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.29%E -5.83%K -29.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-31 09:45
BetOnline.ag3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -5.21%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-31 09:44
Winamax (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -8.31%E -2.34%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%EV -8.77%E -7.13%K -38.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.