Language:English
Darren Elkins v Yadier DelValle
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Darren Elkins (Local)
Prediction 13.70%7.30fair odd
EV +9.64%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.133%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.99%13.74%13.87%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.786.658.0016.67%14.76%15.04%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Yadier DelValle (Visit)
Prediction 86.30%1.16fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -27.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.27%86.26%86.13%88.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.101.111.1294.34%90.63%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darren Elkins (Local): 13.70%; Yadier DelValle (Visit): 86.30%. For Darren Elkins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.64%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +9.64%E +1.20%K +1.38%G +0.133% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.94%E -5.45%K -65.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.92I 12.63%NM 12.29%EV +8.54%E +1.08%K +1.23%G +0.105% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.71%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-09 01:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +2.79%E +0.371%K +0.428%G +0.012% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 01:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.79%E +0.371%K +0.428%G +0.012% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.94%E -5.45%K -65.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.04%EV +1.41%E +0.191%K +0.221%G +0.003% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.96%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.10%EV +0.044%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.90%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 20:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.10%EV +0.044%E +0.006%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.90%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 20:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -0.641%E -0.088%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 00:03 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.24I 13.81%NM 13.29%EV -0.778%E -0.107%K -0.125%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.71%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 00:18 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -4.07%E -0.581%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 15:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.07%E -0.581%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV -5.44%E -0.788%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 00:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.85I 14.60%NM 13.62%EV -6.12%E -0.894%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.38%EV -6.80%E -6.30%K -85.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 01:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -6.81%E -1.00%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 12:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -7.49%E -1.11%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -3.35%E -2.99%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-06 16:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.49%E -1.11%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 19:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.49%E -1.11%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 19:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -8.18%E -1.22%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 15:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.06%EV -9.55%E -1.45%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.94%EV -6.80%E -6.30%K -85.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 11:33 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.21%E -3.79%K -38.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 17:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -10.92%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 15:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -13.66%E -2.17%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -5.08%E -4.61%K -50.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 00:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -16.40%E -2.69%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.84%EV -5.94%E -5.45%K -65.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 01:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.77%E -2.96%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.35%E -2.99%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-06 14:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -17.77%E -2.96%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -5.94%E -5.45%K -65.98%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 20:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -17.77%E -2.96%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.99%EV -8.53%E -8.04%K -142.12%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-08 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 8.38I 11.93%NM 11.97% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 88.03% | -0.3% | 2026-08-09 01:10 |
| Novig◎ | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.95% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.05% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 01:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 01:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 1.7% | 2026-08-09 01:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.56% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.44% | 2.1% | 2026-08-09 01:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.08% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 01:00 |
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