Language:English
Daniil Donchenko v Punahele Soriano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Donchenko (Local)
Prediction 67.42%1.48fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -6.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%67.51%67.43%69.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.411.401.4477.52%71.15%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Punahele Soriano (Visit)
Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.830%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%32.49%32.57%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.912.953.1537.74%34.38%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Donchenko (Local): 67.42%; Punahele Soriano (Visit): 32.58%. For Punahele Soriano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.61%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.95%E -5.04%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +2.61%E +0.830%K +1.22%G +0.032% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 16:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.95%E -5.04%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +2.61%E +0.830%K +1.22%G +0.032% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.27%E -0.758%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 12:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.27%E -0.758%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 10:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.50%EV -3.25%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 13:53 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-03 21:38 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-03 05:27 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 12:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.90%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12%EV -2.91%E -2.02%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 04:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.26%E -3.00%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 07:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.26%E -3.00%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 04:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.28%E -4.52%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.53%E -1.91%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 15:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -4.93%E -3.50%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -6.83%E -2.39%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.16%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.16%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 04:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.61%E -4.00%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.16%E -2.51%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -6.95%E -5.04%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -8.79%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.30%E -6.11%K -23.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.79%E -3.14%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.91%E -2.02%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.42%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.91%E -2.02%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.42%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.91%E -2.02%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.42%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 05:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.58%E -2.51%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.42%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 03:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -6.95%E -5.04%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -10.42%E -3.79%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.26%EV -13.02%E -10.10%K -44.91%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.74%EV -13.67%E -5.16%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.69% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.31% | -0.2% | 2026-09-04 14:19 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 05:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 09:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.65% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.57% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 04:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.54% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.59% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 08:14 |