The School of Odds
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Daniel Zellhuber v King Green

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 02:54 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Zellhuber (Local)

Prediction 76.03%1.32fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.65%76.33%76.10%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2983.33%79.87%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

King Green (Visit)

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV +7.88%
Edge +1.75%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%23.67%23.90%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.984.004.5029.41%25.14%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Zellhuber (Local): 76.03%; King Green (Visit): 23.97%. For King Green (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.88%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -8.77%E -7.31%K -43.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +7.88%E +1.75%K +2.25%G +0.178%5.6%2026-03-01 02:44
Caesars🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.73%E -4.62%K -23.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%4.5%2026-03-01 02:42
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:44
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.691%E +0.165%K +0.216%G +0.001%5.1%2026-03-01 02:44
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 76.03%EV -2.69%E -2.10%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.97%EV -2.67%E -0.656%K -0.871%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-01 02:45
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.17%EV -3.45%E -2.71%K -12.77%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.83%EV -2.67%E -0.656%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-01 02:44
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.45%E -2.71%K -12.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -4.10%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-01 02:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.97%E -3.97%K -19.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.10%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 02:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.97%E -3.97%K -19.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.10%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 02:45
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.97%E -3.97%K -19.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.10%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 02:45
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.91%EV -4.21%E -3.34%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.09%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 02:45
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.45%E -2.71%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.73%E -4.62%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 02:44
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -2.69%E -2.10%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -6.50%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-01 02:44
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.21%E -3.34%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.50%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 02:45
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.21%E -3.34%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -6.50%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 02:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.69%E -2.10%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-01 02:45
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.69%E -2.10%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-01 02:45
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.45%E -2.71%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.49%E -5.27%K -28.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 02:44
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.25%E -5.94%K -32.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 02:45
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.93%E -1.49%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.09%E -4.60%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 02:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.93%E -1.49%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.09%E -4.60%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 02:45
BetAnything🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -2.69%E -2.10%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -18.49%E -5.44%K -7.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 02:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-03-01 02:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-03-01 02:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-03-01 02:45
Matchbook◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-03-01 02:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.06%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.07%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%6.9%2026-03-01 02:37