Language:English
Daniel Barez v Luis Gurule
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Barez (Local)
Prediction 38.91%2.57fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.446%
Kelly +0.725%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%39.02%38.83%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.382.6044.44%41.50%42.02%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luis Gurule (Visit)
Prediction 61.09%1.64fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.98%61.17%62.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.571.6265.36%63.57%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Barez (Local): 38.91%; Luis Gurule (Visit): 61.09%. For Daniel Barez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV +1.16%E +0.446%K +0.725%G +0.008% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -5.92%E -3.84%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-16 20:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -0.007%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -6.53%E -4.27%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.44%EV -1.56%E -0.618%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.56%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -1.56%E -0.618%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -4.70%E -3.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-16 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.73%E -1.09%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.70%E -3.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.73%E -1.09%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.70%E -3.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 20:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.73%E -1.09%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.53%E -4.27%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 21:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.68%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.86%E -1.80%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-16 18:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.68%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.70%E -3.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 21:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.68%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.31%E -3.42%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 21:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.68%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.53%E -4.27%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 21:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.68%E -1.91%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.53%E -4.27%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 20:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.45%E -2.24%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -2.86%E -1.80%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-16 18:22 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.62%E -2.76%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.86%E -1.80%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.62%E -2.76%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.62%E -2.76%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.62%E -2.76%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.31%E -3.42%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 20:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.47%E -2.20%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.09%E -2.60%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.40%E -3.11%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.53%E -4.27%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 21:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -8.18%E -3.47%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -1.03%E -0.636%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 19:11 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -1.03%E -0.636%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 17:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -1.03%E -0.636%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 17:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.25%E -1.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 19:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.25%E -1.41%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 19:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -12.46%E -5.54%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.03%E -0.636%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-15 22:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -12.46%E -5.54%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.03%E -0.636%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-15 22:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44% | 0.1% | 2026-05-16 21:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 0.3% | 2026-05-16 21:31 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-16 21:31 |
| Novig◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-16 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 21:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 1.0% | 2026-05-16 21:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-05-16 21:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 1.4% | 2026-05-16 21:31 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.22% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.93% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 15:55 |