The School of OddsDamian Pinas v Cesar Almeida
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Damian Pinas (Local)
Prediction 69.43%1.44fair odd
EV -0.028%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.063%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%69.57%69.17%72.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4475%73%72%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Cesar Almeida (Visit)
Prediction 30.57%3.27fair odd
EV +5.48%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.123%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%30.43%30.83%33.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.883.103.053.4535%32%33%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV +5.48%E +1.59%K +2.24%G +0.123% | 3.6% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.31%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV +3.34%E +0.989%K +1.40%G +0.047% | 3.1% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.66%E -5.76%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +2.43%E +0.724%K +1.03%G +0.025% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV +0.897%E +0.272%K +0.390%G +0.003% | 3.8% | 2026-07-11 21:57 |
| DraftKings | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.28%E -4.65%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +0.897%E +0.272%K +0.390%G +0.003% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Bet Right | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.66%E -5.76%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.897%E +0.272%K +0.390%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-07-11 22:04 |
| PlayUp | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.28%E -4.65%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.16%E -0.675%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 21:49 |
| BetAnything | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -2.16%E -0.675%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Coolbet | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.18%EV -3.50%E -2.52%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -4.61%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| FanDuel | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.50%E -2.52%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-10 22:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-10 10:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.89%E -3.57%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 20:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%EV -5.52%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 18:39 |
| Caesars | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 20:32 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| Unibet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| TABtouch | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:14 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| betPARX | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:14 |
| Bally Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 10:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 12:39 |
| BetRivers | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-10 14:15 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-09 15:55 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-11 20:24 |
| BetMGM | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 12:39 |
| NordicBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -0.028%E -0.019%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 14:15 |
| Betsson | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -0.028%E -0.019%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 14:15 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-09 10:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-09 10:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.39I 71.94%NM 72.03% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.97% | -0.1% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
| Polymarket | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-07-11 21:55 |
| Novig | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.93% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 28.07% | 1.5% | 2026-07-11 22:09 |
| Matchbook | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
| ProphetX | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-07-11 22:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.91% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-07-10 09:55 |