Damian Pinas v Cesar Almeida

2026-07-11 22:15 — MMA

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Damian Pinas (Local)

Odds

1.4071.43%Min

1.4768.07%Mean

1.4867.80%Median

1.5066.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

63.59%1.573Min

68.18%1.467Max

65.78%1.520Mean

65.73%1.521Median

65.72%1.522IQM

65.81%1.520Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 65.72%

EV -1.41%Edge -0.943%Kelly -2.83%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Cesar Almeida (Visit)

Odds

2.6038.46%Min

2.7236.75%Mean

2.7037.04%Median

3.0033.33%Max

Consensus probabilities

31.82%3.143Min

36.41%2.747Max

34.22%2.922Mean

34.27%2.918Median

34.28%2.917IQM

34.19%2.924Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 34.28%

EV +2.83%Edge +0.943%Kelly +1.41%Growth +0.040%

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Damian Pinas (Local)	Cesar Almeida (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -7.99% E -5.71% K -19.97% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV +2.83% E +0.943% K +1.41% G +0.040%	4.8%	2026-07-04 18:15
Caesars	1.43I 69.93% NM 67.35%EV -6.02% E -4.21% K -13.99% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 32.65%EV +1.12% E +0.378% K +0.572% G +0.006%	3.8%	2026-07-04 19:53
BetMGM	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -7.99% E -5.71% K -19.97% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -0.598% E -0.206% K -0.315% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-04 18:20
BetOnline.ag	1.47I 68.03% NM 65.97%EV -3.39% E -2.30% K -7.21% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 34.03%EV -2.31% E -0.811% K -1.25% G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-07-05 11:30
Coolbet	1.47I 68.03% NM 65.97%EV -3.39% E -2.30% K -7.21% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 34.03%EV -2.31% E -0.811% K -1.25% G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-07-05 14:05
Bovada	1.45I 68.97% NM 66.28%EV -4.70% E -3.24% K -10.45% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.72%EV -2.31% E -0.811% K -1.25% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-04 23:24
Pinnacle	1.46I 68.49% NM 65.81%EV -4.04% E -2.77% K -8.79% G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59% NM 34.19%EV -3.68% E -1.31% K -2.03% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-05 00:19
DraftKings	1.46I 68.49% NM 65.73%EV -4.04% E -2.77% K -8.79% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 34.27%EV -4.03% E -1.44% K -2.24% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-04 15:40
888sport	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.48%EV -4.70% E -3.24% K -10.45% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.52%EV -5.74% E -2.09% K -3.28% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-04 22:10
PointsBet (AU)	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.48%EV -4.70% E -3.24% K -10.45% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.52%EV -5.74% E -2.09% K -3.28% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-04 22:10
Unibet (UK)	1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -5.36% E -3.72% K -12.18% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -5.74% E -2.09% K -3.28% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-04 23:24
Bet Right	1.46I 68.49% NM 65.07%EV -4.04% E -2.77% K -8.79% G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76% NM 34.93%EV -6.77% E -2.49% K -3.93% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-03 13:00
NordicBet	1.49I 67.11% NM 64.44%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.56%EV -7.45% E -2.76% K -4.38% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-02 20:25
Betsson	1.49I 67.11% NM 64.44%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.56%EV -7.45% E -2.76% K -4.38% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-02 20:25
Betr (AU)	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.70% E -3.24% K -10.45% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -7.45% E -2.76% K -4.38% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-04 23:35
BetAnything	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.70% E -3.24% K -10.45% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -7.45% E -2.76% K -4.38% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-04 23:25
SportsBet	1.48I 67.57% NM 64.34%EV -2.73% E -1.84% K -5.69% G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45% NM 35.66%EV -8.48% E -3.18% K -5.08% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-04 22:15
Hard Rock Bet	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -1.41% E -0.943% K -2.83% G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -9.17% E -3.46% K -5.56% G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-07-02 13:49
FanDuel	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.23%EV -3.39% E -2.30% K -7.21% G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88% NM 35.77%EV -9.51% E -3.60% K -5.80% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-29 23:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.68%EV -1.41% E -0.943% K -2.83% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.32%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-29 23:39
LiveScore Bet	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:49
Unibet	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:45
TABtouch	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:45
Grosvenor	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:49
Virgin Bet	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:50
ATG (SE)	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:50
betPARX	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:45
Bally Bet	1.49I 67.11% NM 63.83%EV -2.07% E -1.39% K -4.23% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 36.17%EV -9.85% E -3.75% K -6.04% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-02 13:48
Paddy Power	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -1.41% E -0.943% K -2.83% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -10.20% E -3.89% K -6.29% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-29 23:36
PlayUp	1.48I 67.57% NM 63.73%EV -2.73% E -1.84% K -5.69% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.27%EV -10.88% E -4.19% K -6.80% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 12:44
LeoVegas	1.54I 64.94% NM 61.88%EV +1.21% E +0.788% K +2.25% G +0.027%	2.50I 40.00% NM 38.12%EV -14.31% E -5.72% K -9.54% G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-30 14:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Damian Pinas (Local)	Cesar Almeida (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	1.52I 65.79%	2.86I 34.97%	0.8%	2026-07-05 07:45
Kalshi	1.54I 64.94%	2.78I 35.97%	0.9%	2026-06-30 05:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.48I 67.57%	2.62I 38.17%	5.7%	2026-07-05 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.48I 67.57%	2.62I 38.17%	5.7%	2026-07-05 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.48I 67.57%	2.62I 38.17%	5.7%	2026-07-05 12:40
Novig	1.45I 68.97%	2.67I 37.45%	6.4%	2026-07-05 14:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.44I 69.44%	2.70I 37.04%	50.00I 2.00%	8.5%	2026-07-04 12:30