The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Dakota Bush v Robert Watley

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 00:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dakota Bush (Local)

Prediction 33.32%3.00fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%33.32%32.72%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.822.802.9535.71%35.41%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robert Watley (Visit)

Prediction 66.68%1.50fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.885%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.42%66.68%67.28%67.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.401.381.4872.46%71.26%72.46%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dakota Bush (Local): 33.32%; Robert Watley (Visit): 66.68%. For Robert Watley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.48, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.71%E -0.581%K -0.879%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.64%E -3.25%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-27 01:45
FanDuel🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -2.05%E -0.697%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.64%E -3.25%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-28 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -1.31%E -0.885%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-28 01:50
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.31%E -3.74%K -12.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 01:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.31%E -3.74%K -12.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 01:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:55
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:55
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:55
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:54
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.98%E -5.78%K -20.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-25 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.