Language:English
Curtis Blaydes v Josh Hokit
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Curtis Blaydes (Local)
Prediction 48.69%2.05fair odd
EV +4.69%
Edge +2.18%
Kelly +4.08%
Growth +0.192%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%48.67%48.70%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.932.1555.56%51.49%51.81%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Josh Hokit (Visit)
Prediction 51.31%1.95fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +2.61%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%51.33%51.30%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.871.872.0057.47%53.52%53.48%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Curtis Blaydes (Local): 48.69%; Josh Hokit (Visit): 51.31%. For Curtis Blaydes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +4.69%E +2.18%K +4.08%G +0.192% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -10.73%E -6.17%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.176%E -0.086%K -0.167%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.81%EV -1.15%E -0.566%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.19%EV -4.57%E -2.46%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-12 02:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.61%E -1.31%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.61%E -1.31%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.61%E -1.31%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.61%E -1.31%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.58%E -1.81%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.57%E -2.46%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.07%E -2.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.56%E -2.33%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.03%E -1.60%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-12 02:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 02:23 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.05%E -2.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.53%E -2.85%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.53%E -2.85%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.55%E -1.89%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -6.02%E -3.12%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.60%E -3.04%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.99%E -3.66%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.01%E -1.05%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 02:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.99%E -3.66%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.01%E -1.05%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 02:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.99%E -3.66%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.99%E -3.66%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.94%E -4.78%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 02:21 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.91%E -5.36%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 02:23 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -12.35%E -6.86%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +2.61%E +1.31%K +2.61%G +0.068% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -12.35%E -6.86%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +2.61%E +1.31%K +2.61%G +0.068% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31% | -0.1% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37% | -0.0% | 2026-04-12 02:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 0.4% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.10% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.90% | 1.1% | 2026-04-12 02:25 |