Language:English
Cub Swanson v Nate Landwehr
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cub Swanson (Local)
Prediction 53.85%1.86fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.09%53.82%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.751.8059.88%56.90%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nate Landwehr (Visit)
Prediction 46.15%2.17fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +3.07%
Growth +0.117%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%45.91%46.18%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.072.2550.00%48.28%48.31%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cub Swanson (Local): 53.85%; Nate Landwehr (Visit): 46.15%. For Nate Landwehr (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -10.07%E -6.03%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV +3.83%E +1.70%K +3.07%G +0.117% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV +1.06%E +0.485%K +0.893%G +0.009% | 2.8% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.30%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.783%E -0.364%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 01:18 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -0.783%E -0.364%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.30%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -7.37%E -4.29%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -4.48%E -2.16%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.78%E -3.36%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.07%E -1.70%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-12 01:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |