Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cris Cyborg v Ketlen Vieira

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 02:45 UTC

Final: Cris Cyborg 1–0 Ketlen Vieira

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cris Cyborg (Local)

Prediction 82.10%1.22fair odd

EV -1.48%

Edge -1.23%

Kelly -7.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.17%82.10%82.10%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.161.151.2087.72%86.02%86.58%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ketlen Vieira (Visit)

Prediction 17.90%5.59fair odd

EV +7.40%

Edge +1.23%

Kelly +1.48%

Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.97%17.90%17.90%19.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.855.465.506.0020.62%18.31%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cris Cyborg (Local): 82.10%; Ketlen Vieira (Visit): 17.90%. For Ketlen Vieira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.41%E -5.62%K -45.76%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +7.40%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%	4.4%	2026-08-23 01:21
ReBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.41%E -5.62%K -45.76%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +7.40%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%	4.4%	2026-08-23 01:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.94%E -3.37%K -23.20%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.50%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-23 02:15
FanDuel🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -1.48%E -1.23%K -7.40%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -13.18%E -2.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-22 22:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.