The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Colton Loud v Christian Natividad

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colton Loud (Local)

Prediction 26.16%3.82fair odd
EV +0.706%
Edge +0.183%
Kelly +0.248%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%25.99%26.16%28.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.173.563.553.8531.55%28.07%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christian Natividad (Visit)

Prediction 73.84%1.35fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -10.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.56%74.01%73.84%75.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.291.301.3179.37%77.25%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Colton Loud (Local): 26.16%; Christian Natividad (Visit): 73.84%. For Colton Loud (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.706%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV +0.706%E +0.183%K +0.248%G +0.002%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.48%E -4.28%K -19.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 23:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -3.48%E -0.943%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-08 23:02
FanDuel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.53%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-08 22:45
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -5.83%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.27%E -2.49%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 23:04
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.14%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 21:49
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.14%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 21:49
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.14%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.76%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.00%E -3.08%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 23:04
ReBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 28.44%EV -17.08%E -5.39%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.56%EV -6.96%E -5.52%K -26.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86%1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14%0.3%2026-09-08 23:09
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-09-08 23:09
Novig◎3.77I 26.53%NM 25.93%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.07%2.3%2026-09-08 23:09
ProphetX◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%3.7%2026-09-08 23:00