Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cody Gibson v Abdul Hussein

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:14 UTC

Final: Cody Gibson 0–1 Abdul Hussein

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cody Gibson (Local)

Prediction 17.18%5.82fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.250%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.67%17.30%17.29%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.345.285.7521.05%18.72%18.96%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abdul Hussein (Visit)

Prediction 82.82%1.21fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -7.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.10%82.70%82.71%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.151.1989.29%86.49%86.96%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cody Gibson (Local): 17.18%; Abdul Hussein (Visit): 82.82%. For Cody Gibson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.75, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-25 12:54
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-25 13:04
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-25 11:42
Coolbet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-24 23:25
Betsson🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-25 11:59
NordicBet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -1.19%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-25 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -3.77%E -0.672%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 13:05
Caesars🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -3.77%E -0.672%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 12:49
FanDuel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.11%E -2.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 12:25
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 12:25
BetUS🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 12:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 13:05
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 11:09
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.48%E -0.997%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.59%E -4.90%K -39.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 04:45
Pinnacle🎯5.36I 18.66%NM 18.17%EV -7.89%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.83%EV -1.45%E -1.22%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-25 13:00
Fliff🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -8.92%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 12:59
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -9.78%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.11%E -2.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-25 13:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.78%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.78%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 22:50
Virgin Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
BetRivers🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
betPARX🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:34
Bally Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -10.64%E -2.05%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -3.93%E -3.39%K -24.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:34
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.08%E -2.82%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.11%E -2.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 12:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.08%E -2.82%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.11%E -2.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 12:25
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.08%E -2.82%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.11%E -2.65%K -18.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-24 23:10
BetAnything🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -16.65%E -3.43%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -4.76%E -4.14%K -31.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 12:55
Grosvenor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -17.51%E -3.65%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -7.25%E -6.47%K -60.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 12:35
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -18.37%E -3.87%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -2.28%E -1.93%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 04:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly6.62I 15.11%NM 15.13%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.87%-0.1%2026-07-25 13:05
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%0.7%2026-07-25 13:10
Polymarket6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%0.7%2026-07-25 13:05
ProphetX5.95I 16.81%NM 16.55%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.45%1.6%2026-07-25 13:05
Novig5.13I 19.49%NM 18.70%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.30%4.2%2026-07-25 13:10
Matchbook4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%7.0%2026-07-25 12:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.79%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.38%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.1%2026-07-25 12:50