The School of Odds
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Cody Chovancek v Su Young You

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 21:14 UTC

Final: Cody Chovancek 0–1 Su Young You

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cody Chovancek (Local)

Prediction 53.53%1.87fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.819%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.54%53.71%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.751.751.8463.69%57.13%57.14%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Su Young You (Visit)

Prediction 46.47%2.15fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.46%46.29%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.072.082.1251.81%48.38%48.08%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cody Chovancek (Local): 53.53%; Su Young You (Visit): 46.47%. For Su Young You (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%EV -1.51%E -0.819%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%EV -4.27%E -2.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 20:50
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.04%E -1.12%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.06%E -3.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 20:03
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.73%E -2.31%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 21:00
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.73%E -2.31%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 16:35
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.06%E -3.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 04:15
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.06%E -3.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 20:45
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.06%E -3.53%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 20:20
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.65%E -2.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.38%E -4.81%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.18%E -2.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.34%E -1.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 21:04
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.18%E -2.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.34%E -1.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 21:05
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.25%E -2.97%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.41%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.25%E -2.97%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.73%E -2.31%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 12:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.79%E -3.29%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.73%E -2.31%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 21:00
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.32%E -3.61%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.73%E -2.31%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 12:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.86%E -3.94%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.41%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 20:55
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:55
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:54
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:55
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:55
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.40%E -4.27%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.48%E -0.699%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 20:55
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.41%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 21:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.41%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 19:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.61%E -6.35%K -15.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.41%E -1.15%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 21:00
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.14%EV -15.96%E -10.17%K -28.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.86%EV -10.31%E -5.34%K -11.09%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-17 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.98%2.17I 46.08%NM 46.02%0.1%2026-10-17 21:05
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-10-17 21:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-10-17 21:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-10-17 21:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-10-17 21:05
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-10-15 17:15
Novig◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.98%1.2%2026-10-17 21:05
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%1.9%2026-10-17 21:05