Language:English
Clayton Carpenter v Jose Ochoa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Clayton Carpenter (Local)
Prediction 38.58%2.59fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%38.52%38.60%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.472.452.5542.02%40.45%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jose Ochoa (Visit)
Prediction 61.42%1.63fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%61.48%61.40%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.551.551.5965.36%64.49%64.52%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clayton Carpenter (Local): 38.58%; Jose Ochoa (Visit): 61.42%. For Clayton Carpenter (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.61%E -0.632%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 21:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.61%E -0.632%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.42%E -3.52%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 14:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.61%E -0.632%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.42%E -3.52%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.77%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-08 21:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.77%E -1.10%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 16:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-09 20:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-06 20:11 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 21:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 13:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 13:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.42%E -3.52%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 13:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-03 14:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-03 14:26 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.93%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.35%E -1.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.93%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.35%E -1.48%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 20:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.31%E -1.74%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.42%E -3.52%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 19:41 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 19:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 20:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.19%E -2.69%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 16:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-05 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 17:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.47%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.40%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 17:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.17%E -3.43%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.03%E -3.94%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.21% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.79% | -0.1% | 2026-05-09 21:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 21:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
| Novig◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.16% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.84% | 2.4% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.63% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.12% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25% | 8.3% | 2026-05-06 12:00 |