The School of Odds

Cihad Akipa v Mate Kertesz

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cihad Akipa (Local)

Prediction 76.99%1.30fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -3.65%
Kelly -18.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.99%76.99%76.99%76.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.241.241.241.2480.65%80.65%80.65%80.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Mate Kertesz (Visit)

Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.01%23.01%23.01%23.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.154.154.154.1524.10%24.10%24.10%24.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.