Language:English
Christian Leroy Duncan v Roman Dolidze
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Christian Leroy Duncan (Local)
Prediction 75.69%1.32fair odd
EV -0.089%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.277%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%75.74%75.67%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.261.3283.33%79.44%79.37%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roman Dolidze (Visit)
Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV +9.39%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +2.68%
Growth +0.252%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.05%24.26%24.33%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.933.954.5028.57%25.45%25.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Christian Leroy Duncan (Local): 75.69%; Roman Dolidze (Visit): 24.31%. For Roman Dolidze (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.39%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -9.17%E -7.64%K -45.86%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +9.39%E +2.09%K +2.68%G +0.252% | 5.6% | 2026-03-18 11:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.81%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +5.26%E +1.21%K +1.58%G +0.083% | 5.1% | 2026-03-15 20:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -6.14%E -4.95%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +3.32%E +0.780%K +1.02%G +0.034% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -6.14%E -4.95%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +3.32%E +0.780%K +1.02%G +0.034% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.03%EV -3.12%E -2.43%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.97%EV -1.30%E -0.321%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.76%E -0.690%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 18:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.76%E -0.690%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 20:13 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.39%E -4.31%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.76%E -0.690%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.39%E -4.31%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.76%E -0.690%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.39%E -4.31%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.76%E -0.690%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 18:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 20:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 20:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 20:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.39%E -4.31%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -3.98%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.19%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 20:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.19%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 20:36 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.63%E -3.67%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.19%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.39%E -4.31%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.19%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 20:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.19%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 14:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -3.12%E -2.43%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -6.41%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 20:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.36%E -1.83%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -7.62%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 20:22 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -6.90%E -5.61%K -30.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.62%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 17:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.84%E -2.36%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -2.36%E -1.83%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -10.05%E -2.72%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 20:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.65%EV -0.089%E -0.067%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.35%EV -10.30%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.36%E -1.83%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -14.92%E -4.26%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.36%E -1.83%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -14.92%E -4.26%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 20:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -3.87%E -3.05%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -14.92%E -4.26%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 20:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.56% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.44% | 0.3% | 2026-03-21 20:33 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Novig◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.15% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.85% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.3% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.88% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.24% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 20:19 |