The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Christian Echols v Martin Kozák

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 00:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Christian Echols (Local)

Prediction 14.79%6.76fair odd
EV +2.93%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.491%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 6.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.86%14.85%14.79%22.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.945.776.006.9625.38%17.34%16.67%14.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martin Kozák (Visit)

Prediction 85.21%1.17fair odd
EV -0.302%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.56%85.15%85.21%86.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.141.141.1790.09%87.72%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Christian Echols (Local): 14.79%; Martin Kozák (Visit): 85.21%. For Christian Echols (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯6.96I 14.37%NM 13.86%EV +2.93%E +0.421%K +0.491%G +0.014%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.14%EV -4.56%E -4.07%K -38.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-09 00:10
Pinnacle🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 13.97%EV +2.04%E +0.296%K +0.346%G +0.007%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.03%EV -4.56%E -4.07%K -38.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -8.31%E -1.34%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.56%E -4.07%K -38.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 23:15
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -11.27%E -1.88%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -2.86%E -2.51%K -20.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-09 00:08
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -11.27%E -1.88%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.42%E -4.88%K -49.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 00:09
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -21.62%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -0.302%E -0.259%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-08 14:25
Grosvenor🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -21.62%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -0.302%E -0.259%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-08 14:25
TABtouch🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -21.62%E -4.08%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -0.302%E -0.259%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-08 14:25
ReBet🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 22.44%EV -41.73%E -10.59%K -14.20%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -2.86%E -2.51%K -20.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.32%1.17I 85.47%NM 85.68%-0.2%2026-09-09 00:04
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%1.28I 78.13%NM 76.51%2.1%2026-09-09 00:10
Novig◎6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%5.3%2026-09-09 00:09
ProphetX◎6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%5.7%2026-09-08 23:09