Language:English
Chris Curtis v Myktybek Orolbai
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chris Curtis (Local)
Prediction 20.93%4.78fair odd
EV +0.482%
Edge +0.100%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%21.31%20.85%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.444.504.8027.03%22.52%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Myktybek Orolbai (Visit)
Prediction 79.07%1.26fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.941%
Kelly +4.30%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.30%78.69%79.15%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.211.2884.03%82.26%82.64%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chris Curtis (Local): 20.93%; Myktybek Orolbai (Visit): 79.07%. For Myktybek Orolbai (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.20%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -22.55%E -6.09%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV +1.20%E +0.941%K +4.30%G +0.052% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 15:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -22.55%E -6.09%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV +1.20%E +0.941%K +4.30%G +0.052% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 15:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -16.27%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.17%E -0.934%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 22:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -19.41%E -5.04%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -1.17%E -0.934%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 20:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -11.03%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -1.96%E -1.58%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 21:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.85%EV -2.24%E -0.480%K -0.610%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.15%EV -2.75%E -2.23%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-14 23:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.18%EV -4.96%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.82%EV -3.54%E -2.90%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 22:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -9.36%E -2.16%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -3.54%E -2.90%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 17:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.03%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.54%E -2.90%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 23:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -19.41%E -5.04%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -3.54%E -2.90%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 23:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -1.61%E -0.343%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 22:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.33%E -3.58%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 23:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +0.482%E +0.100%K +0.127%G +0.001% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 23:32 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -0.565%E -0.119%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 22:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.37%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.63%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -1.61%E -0.343%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -5.91%E -4.97%K -31.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 22:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.04I 19.84%NM 19.87% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 80.13% | -0.2% | 2026-03-14 23:29 |
| Novig◎ | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.78% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.22% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 23:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-03-14 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-03-14 23:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.05% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.95% | 2.2% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.41% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.35% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.24% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 23:10 |