Language:English
Chidi Njokuani v Joel Alvarez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chidi Njokuani (Local)
Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 4.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%25.37%25.45%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.653.624.0629.85%27.36%27.66%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joel Alvarez (Visit)
Prediction 74.53%1.34fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -10.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.34%74.63%74.55%76.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.291.3081.30%78.02%77.52%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chidi Njokuani (Local): 25.47%; Joel Alvarez (Visit): 74.53%. For Chidi Njokuani (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.97%EV +3.41%E +0.841%K +1.12%G +0.038% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.03%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +1.89%E +0.471%K +0.629%G +0.012% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 00:37 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +1.89%E +0.471%K +0.629%G +0.012% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -6.09%E -4.84%K -23.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +0.612%E +0.155%K +0.208%G +0.001% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -0.152%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 00:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.661%E -0.170%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.84%E -5.47%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 00:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 23:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 23:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.48%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 00:37 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -5.76%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 15:03 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.76%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 23:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -7.03%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 00:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -7.03%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 23:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.03%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -7.54%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 00:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.30%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.60%E -3.60%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 04:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -6.84%E -5.47%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 11:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.85%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.35%E -4.21%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-13 09:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 00:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 00:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.11%E -2.39%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 00:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -14.67%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.14%EV -8.33%E -6.77%K -36.22%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-16 00:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.98I 25.13%NM 25.19% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.81% | -0.2% | 2026-08-16 00:24 |
| Novig◎ | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.44% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.56% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 00:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-08-16 00:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.56% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 11:54 |