Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chidi Njokuani v Joel Alvarez

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

33%

67%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chidi Njokuani (Local)

Prediction 33.39%2.99fair odd

EV -1.49%

Edge -0.506%

Kelly -0.765%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.65%33.39%33.26%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.882.892.9535.71%34.72%34.60%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joel Alvarez (Visit)

Prediction 66.61%1.50fair odd

EV -2.75%

Edge -1.89%

Kelly -5.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.73%66.61%66.74%67.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.441.441.4669.93%69.28%69.44%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chidi Njokuani (Local): 33.39%; Joel Alvarez (Visit): 66.61%. For Chidi Njokuani (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.95, with an expected value of -1.49%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.49%E -0.506%K -0.765%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.05%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-04 22:25
BetOnline.ag	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -3.50%E -1.21%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.08%E -2.84%K -9.28%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-04 22:10
DraftKings	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -6.50%E -2.32%K -3.61%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -2.75%E -1.89%K -5.98%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-04 21:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.