Language:English
Chidi Njokuani v Carlos Leal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chidi Njokuani (Local)
Prediction 44.23%2.26fair odd
EV -0.484%
Edge -0.215%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%44.13%44.16%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.142.2550.00%46.67%46.73%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Leal (Visit)
Prediction 55.77%1.79fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.727%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.87%55.84%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.741.7759.88%58.25%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chidi Njokuani (Local): 44.23%; Carlos Leal (Visit): 55.77%. For Chidi Njokuani (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.484%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.484%E -0.215%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.31%E -3.75%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-22 00:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.484%E -0.215%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -0.926%E -0.413%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -6.31%E -3.75%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 00:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.19%E -3.05%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 04:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 03:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 03:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.70%E -1.23%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -3.14%E -1.43%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -6.31%E -3.75%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -3.58%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -2.40%E -1.37%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-22 00:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.58%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.63%E -2.71%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-21 01:22 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.91%E -2.28%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.19%E -3.05%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 19:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.91%E -2.28%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.19%E -3.05%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 00:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.91%E -2.28%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.19%E -3.05%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.91%E -2.28%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.19%E -3.05%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 00:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.91%E -2.28%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.86%E -4.11%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-21 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.35%E -2.50%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.40%E -1.37%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.35%E -2.50%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 00:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.29%E -0.727%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-21 23:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.40%E -1.37%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-20 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.40%E -1.37%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-20 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.96%E -1.70%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 19:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.12%E -3.39%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.52%E -2.03%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 08:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -11.54%E -5.77%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -1.29%E -0.727%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-22 00:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31% | -0.1% | 2026-02-22 00:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.89% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.11% | 1.8% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39% | 1.9% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.1% | 2026-02-22 00:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02% | 4.5% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.62% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.3% | 2026-02-22 00:20 |