The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Charlie Radtke v José Henrique

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlie Radtke (Local)

Prediction 68.22%1.47fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -7.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.22%68.23%70.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.381.4274.63%72.55%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

José Henrique (Visit)

Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV +0.114%
Edge +0.036%
Kelly +0.053%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%31.78%31.77%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.023.1536.36%33.39%33.06%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlie Radtke (Local): 68.22%; José Henrique (Visit): 31.78%. For José Henrique (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.146. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.114%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -8.59%E -6.41%K -25.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +0.114%E +0.036%K +0.053%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-27 05:55
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -7.91%E -5.86%K -22.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -0.840%E -0.269%K -0.396%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 05:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.13%E -2.20%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -3.06%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-27 05:54
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.22%E -5.31%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.65%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 05:53
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.49%E -3.21%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 10:59
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.49%E -3.21%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 05:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 75.79%3.13I 31.95%NM 24.21%31.9%2026-03-27 05:54