Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlie Cleveland v Gabriel Lourenco

2026-09-02 02:40 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlie Cleveland (Local)

Prediction 61.51%1.63fair odd

EV -2.82%

Edge -1.78%

Kelly -4.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.30%61.51%61.33%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.561.551.5864.94%64.24%64.52%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gabriel Lourenco (Visit)

Prediction 38.49%2.60fair odd

EV +0.465%

Edge +0.178%

Kelly +0.289%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.11%38.49%38.67%39.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.442.392.6142.02%40.98%41.84%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Charlie Cleveland (Local): 61.51%; Gabriel Lourenco (Visit): 38.49%. For Gabriel Lourenco (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.61, producing a positive expected value of +0.465%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -5.28%E -3.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV +0.465%E +0.178%K +0.289%G +0.001%	3.2%	2026-08-31 06:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -3.43%E -2.19%K -6.02%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -4.15%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-31 04:40
FanDuel🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.82%E -1.78%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.62%E -3.17%K -5.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-31 03:55
Unibet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -4.66%E -3.01%K -8.48%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -8.39%E -3.52%K -6.08%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-31 06:10
TABtouch🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -4.66%E -3.01%K -8.48%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -8.39%E -3.52%K -6.08%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-31 06:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -4.66%E -3.01%K -8.48%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -8.39%E -3.52%K -6.08%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-31 06:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%	2.1%	2026-08-31 03:50
Novig◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%	4.5%	2026-08-31 07:05