The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Charlie Cleveland v Gabriel Lourenco

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 23:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlie Cleveland (Local)

Prediction 65.40%1.53fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.00%65.64%65.40%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.451.441.4870.42%68.92%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gabriel Lourenco (Visit)

Prediction 34.60%2.89fair odd
EV +0.327%
Edge +0.113%
Kelly +0.172%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.36%34.60%36.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.562.762.752.9039.06%36.21%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlie Cleveland (Local): 65.40%; Gabriel Lourenco (Visit): 34.60%. For Gabriel Lourenco (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.327%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.327%E +0.113%K +0.172%G +0.001%4.9%2026-09-01 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -0.365%E -0.127%K -0.194%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 20:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -3.20%E -2.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -4.17%E -1.51%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 23:34
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -3.20%E -2.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -4.52%E -1.64%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 23:15
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.20%E -2.16%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 23:29
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.16%E -3.56%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 20:20
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 20:19
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 20:19
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 17:29
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.00%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.00%EV -11.44%E -4.47%K -7.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%0.1%2026-09-01 23:29
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-01 22:30
Novig◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-09-01 23:35