The School of Odds
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Charles Oliveira v Diego Lopes

2026-12-13 04:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charles Oliveira (Local)

Prediction 59.46%1.68fair odd
EV +7.03%
Edge +3.90%
Kelly +8.78%
Growth +0.617%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.35%58.34%59.46%63.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.601.8065.79%61.26%62.31%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diego Lopes (Visit)

Prediction 40.54%2.47fair odd
EV +5.41%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +3.38%
Growth +0.183%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.89%41.66%40.54%48.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.302.352.6052.63%43.43%42.46%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Charles Oliveira (Local): 59.46%; Diego Lopes (Visit): 40.54%. For Charles Oliveira (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.80, producing a positive expected value of +7.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV +7.03%E +3.90%K +8.78%G +0.617%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -22.97%E -12.09%K -25.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 01:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -0.109%E -0.065%K -0.160%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -8.38%E -3.71%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 04:44
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -9.03%E -5.90%K -17.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -0.675%E -0.275%K -0.465%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 02:05
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -9.62%E -6.33%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +5.41%E +2.08%K +3.38%G +0.183%4.3%2026-10-04 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (4 combinations) +6.36%Betclic (FR) 1.80 (59.1%) / DraftKings 2.60 (40.9%)Show all 4 combinations
Charles Oliveira (Local)Diego Lopes (Visit)Margin
Betclic (FR)🎯 1.80 (59.1%)DraftKings🎯 2.60 (40.9%)+6.36%
Betclic (FR)🎯 1.80 (57.6%)Caesars🎯 2.45 (42.4%)+3.76%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.68 (60.7%)DraftKings🎯 2.60 (39.3%)+2.06%
Betclic (FR)🎯 1.80 (55.7%)BetOnline.ag🎯 2.26 (44.3%)+0.197%