Language:English
Charles Johnson v Jose Ochoa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Charles Johnson (Local)
Prediction 21.60%4.63fair odd
EV +4.74%
Edge +0.977%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.058%
assuming max odds 4.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%21.79%21.80%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.284.204.8526.67%23.34%23.81%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jose Ochoa (Visit)
Prediction 78.40%1.28fair odd
EV +0.357%
Edge +0.279%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.55%78.21%78.20%80.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.221.221.2886.21%82.03%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charles Johnson (Local): 21.60%; Jose Ochoa (Visit): 78.40%. For Charles Johnson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.74%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +4.74%E +0.977%K +1.23%G +0.058% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -6.70%E -5.63%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +4.74%E +0.977%K +1.23%G +0.058% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -6.70%E -5.63%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV +4.31%E +0.892%K +1.12%G +0.048% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-12 11:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +3.66%E +0.763%K +0.963%G +0.035% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 14:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +3.66%E +0.763%K +0.963%G +0.035% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 00:33 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -1.74%E -0.382%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-12 12:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.82%E -0.626%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-12 00:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.82%E -0.626%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-12 00:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 12:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-12 14:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.89%EV -5.19%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.11%EV -3.56%E -2.90%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-12 14:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -7.14%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 09:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-12 08:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-12 11:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.70%E -5.63%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-11 19:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.46%E -2.79%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 13:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -13.62%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -1.21%E -0.961%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-10 22:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -13.62%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.78%E -2.24%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-11 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.62%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.35%E -3.56%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-12 08:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.62%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -9.05%E -7.80%K -56.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-12 11:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -19.02%E -5.07%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV +0.357%E +0.279%K +1.28%G +0.005% | 4.8% | 2026-08-12 16:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -19.02%E -5.07%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.91%EV -6.70%E -5.63%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-11 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.45% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.55% | -0.2% | 2026-08-12 00:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.60% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 1.7% | 2026-08-12 17:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83% | 4.4% | 2026-08-12 04:20 |
| Novig◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 5.0% | 2026-08-12 16:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32% | 8.3% | 2026-08-12 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 18.97% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 81.03% | 19.8% | 2026-08-12 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 18.97% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 81.03% | 19.8% | 2026-08-12 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00% | 94.2% | 2026-08-12 14:44 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.41% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.44% | 43.00I 2.33%NM 2.15% | 8.1% | 2026-08-12 10:00 |