Language:English
Casey O'Neill v Eduarda Moura
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Casey O'Neill (Local)
Prediction 66.78%1.50fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.85%66.68%66.97%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.421.421.4876.92%70.41%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Eduarda Moura (Visit)
Prediction 33.22%3.01fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.432%
Kelly +0.642%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%33.32%33.03%35.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.872.903.0538.02%34.89%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casey O'Neill (Local): 66.78%; Eduarda Moura (Visit): 33.22%. For Eduarda Moura (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +1.32%E +0.432%K +0.642%G +0.008% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 19:43 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.01%E -0.680%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-17 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.50%E -3.15%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -2.34%E -0.795%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -3.17%E -2.18%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV -2.67%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-19 21:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -2.67%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 21:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.50%E -3.15%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-17 12:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.50%E -3.15%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-19 16:16 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 20:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-18 13:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.33%E -1.50%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 21:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.83%E -2.66%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-19 21:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-17 12:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 14:02 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.33%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.17%E -3.64%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.99%E -2.50%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 21:28 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -1.16%E -0.786%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -7.99%E -2.88%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-19 21:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%EV -1.83%E -1.25%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -7.99%E -2.88%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-19 21:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.17%E -2.18%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 21:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.83%E -2.66%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.65%E -3.15%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 21:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.85%EV -1.16%E -0.786%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.15%EV -9.31%E -3.41%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-16 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 66.92%EV -13.18%E -10.14%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.08%EV -12.64%E -4.80%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-19 20:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.97% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03% | 0.1% | 2026-09-19 21:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10% | 2.5% | 2026-09-19 22:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.28% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.42% | 8.6% | 2026-09-18 10:54 |