Language:English
Carlos Diego Ferreira v Billy Quarantillo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Diego Ferreira (Local)
Prediction 61.24%1.63fair odd
EV -0.794%
Edge -0.490%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.09%61.25%61.25%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.561.6267.57%64.27%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Billy Quarantillo (Visit)
Prediction 38.76%2.58fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.454%
Kelly -0.747%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%38.75%38.75%40.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.432.452.5543.86%41.07%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Diego Ferreira (Local): 61.24%; Billy Quarantillo (Visit): 38.76%. For Carlos Diego Ferreira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -0.794%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -0.794%E -0.490%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -9.30%E -3.97%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.02%E -1.26%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-09 01:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.63%E -1.65%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 01:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.24%E -2.05%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-09 01:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.24%E -2.05%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.97%E -2.90%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 01:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.87%E -1.56%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 01:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 01:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 20:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.97%E -2.90%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 20:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.75%E -3.26%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 01:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.86%E -2.46%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.75%E -3.26%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.10%E -1.24%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 19:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.47%E -2.86%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.97%E -2.90%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 20:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.08%E -3.28%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.26%E -1.72%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-08 19:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.08%E -3.28%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 00:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.08%E -3.28%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 12:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.08%E -3.28%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 01:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.08%E -3.28%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.69%E -3.70%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.16%E -0.454%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 09:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.69%E -3.70%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.16%E -0.454%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 09:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.69%E -3.70%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 01:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -5.69%E -3.70%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.31%E -4.12%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.10%E -1.24%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 01:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.31%E -4.12%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.10%E -1.24%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 19:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.31%E -4.12%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 00:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -6.31%E -4.12%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.81%E -2.39%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-07 17:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.48%EV -8.75%E -5.88%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.52%EV -11.62%E -5.10%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-08 21:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -9.37%E -6.33%K -19.52%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.03%E -2.05%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 10:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-08-09 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 01:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 01:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 00:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 01:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.27% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 17:34 |
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