Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlos Diego Ferreira v Billy Quarantillo

2026-08-09 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

60%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlos Diego Ferreira (Local)

Prediction 59.90%1.67fair odd

EV -2.96%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -4.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.90%59.90%59.90%59.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.621.621.6261.73%61.73%61.73%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Billy Quarantillo (Visit)

Prediction 40.10%2.49fair odd

EV -2.96%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -2.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.10%40.10%40.10%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.422.422.422.4241.32%41.32%41.32%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -2.96%E -1.83%K -4.77%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.96%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-07-30 22:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	1.12I 89.29%NM 53.14%	1.27I 78.74%NM 46.86%	68.0%	2026-07-31 00:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.2%	2026-07-30 22:26