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Carli Judice v Jeisla Chaves
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carli Judice (Local)
Prediction 82.56%1.21fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -14.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.91%82.58%82.71%84.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.161.1890.09%86.55%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jeisla Chaves (Visit)
Prediction 17.44%5.74fair odd
EV +9.85%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.183%
assuming max odds 6.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.21%17.42%17.29%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.335.206.3021.05%18.77%19.23%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carli Judice (Local): 82.56%; Jeisla Chaves (Visit): 17.44%. For Jeisla Chaves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.74. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.85%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -6.70%E -5.93%K -51.56%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV +9.85%E +1.56%K +1.86%G +0.183% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 00:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.88%E -5.16%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +4.62%E +0.770%K +0.924%G +0.043% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 00:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.88%E -5.16%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +4.62%E +0.770%K +0.924%G +0.043% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 00:26 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.24%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.81I 17.21%NM 16.76%EV +1.31%E +0.225%K +0.272%G +0.004% | 2.7% | 2026-08-22 11:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.05%E -4.39%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +0.261%E +0.045%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-23 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.88%E -5.16%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.261%E +0.045%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 00:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.05%E -4.39%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -2.35%E -0.421%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -3.23%E -0.581%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -4.10%E -0.745%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-22 22:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.05%E -4.39%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.10%E -0.745%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.88%E -5.16%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.10%E -0.745%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 00:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -5.84%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-21 16:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.18%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.82%EV -6.71%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -7.59%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 03:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -7.59%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 03:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -8.46%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 00:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.05%E -4.39%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.46%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -7.53%E -6.72%K -62.74%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -9.33%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 00:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -10.20%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -10.20%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-19 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.70%E -5.93%K -51.56%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -11.07%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-21 19:32 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.58%E -2.18%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-18 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-22 03:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-22 03:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.40%E -2.91%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-22 03:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.23%E -3.64%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.82%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-21 19:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.05%E -4.39%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -14.56%E -2.97%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 00:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.06%EV -8.35%E -7.53%K -75.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -17.18%E -3.62%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 84.32% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.68% | -0.3% | 2026-08-22 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-23 00:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-08-23 00:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.59% | 6.06I 16.50%NM 16.41% | 0.5% | 2026-08-23 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-08-23 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 00:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67% | 4.3% | 2026-08-23 00:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46% | 5.28I 18.94%NM 17.68% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 19:14 |