The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bryce Mitchell v Santiago Luna

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 00:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryce Mitchell (Local)

Prediction 53.33%1.88fair odd
EV -0.271%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.312%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.68%53.47%53.51%54.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.801.8758.14%55.77%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santiago Luna (Visit)

Prediction 46.67%2.14fair odd
EV +0.805%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +0.694%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.04%46.53%46.49%48.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.022.1651.28%49.27%49.50%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bryce Mitchell (Local): 53.33%; Santiago Luna (Visit): 46.67%. For Santiago Luna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.805%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%EV -5.60%E -3.17%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%EV +0.805%E +0.373%K +0.694%G +0.006%2.8%2026-06-07 00:30
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -6.67%E -3.81%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -0.595%E -0.279%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-06 20:29
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -6.67%E -3.81%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -0.595%E -0.279%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-06 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.60%E -3.17%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.99%E -0.950%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-07 00:29
PlayUp🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.20%E -4.14%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.99%E -0.950%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-07 00:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.54%E -2.54%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -3.86%E -1.87%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-07 00:29
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -4.33%E -2.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-06 03:19
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.33%E -2.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-07 00:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.07%E -2.85%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.33%E -2.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 00:29
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.20%E -4.14%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.33%E -2.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-07 00:30
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.80%E -2.35%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-06 21:49
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.47%E -1.92%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -4.80%E -2.35%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-06 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.73%E -2.84%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 09:49
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -0.271%E -0.145%K -0.312%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-07 00:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.40%E -1.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-07 00:10
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 00:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 00:29
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 00:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 09:40
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 21:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 09:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 09:49
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-07 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.74%E -4.47%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.66%E -3.33%K -6.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-06 19:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.27%E -4.81%K -11.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.49%EV -7.60%E -3.84%K -7.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-07 00:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -2.94%E -1.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -9.00%E -4.61%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-06 19:49
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.00%E -2.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.00%E -4.61%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63%-0.0%2026-06-07 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-06-07 00:30
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-06-07 00:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-06-07 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-06-07 00:30
Matchbook◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-06-07 00:30
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-06-07 00:30
ProphetX◎1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%3.8%2026-06-07 00:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.65%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86%7.6%2026-06-07 00:00