The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bryce Meredith v Michael Cyr

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryce Meredith (Local)

Prediction 81.55%1.23fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -3.20%
Kelly -20.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.91%81.55%81.55%82.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.171.171.1885.47%85.23%85.47%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Cyr (Visit)

Prediction 18.45%5.42fair odd
EV -0.364%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.083%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.81%18.45%18.45%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.135.005.4020.00%19.48%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bryce Meredith (Local): 81.55%; Michael Cyr (Visit): 18.45%. For Michael Cyr (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.40, with an expected value of -0.364%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.77%E -3.20%K -20.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.74%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 23:59
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.59%E -3.92%K -26.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -0.364%E -0.067%K -0.083%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-25 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.59%E -3.92%K -26.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.74%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 22:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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