Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bruno Silva v Edgar Chairez

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 22:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

47%

53%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bruno Silva (Local)

Prediction 46.88%2.13fair odd

EV +47.66%

Edge +15.13%

Kelly +22.17%

Growth +10.56%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.21%45.52%50.00%52.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.802.261.943.1555.56%44.28%51.68%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Edgar Chairez (Visit)

Prediction 53.13%1.88fair odd

EV +8.38%

Edge +4.11%

Kelly +8.05%

Growth +0.674%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.29%54.48%50.00%70.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.711.902.0478.13%58.55%52.63%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bruno Silva (Local): 46.88%; Edgar Chairez (Visit): 53.13%. For Bruno Silva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.66%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV +47.66%E +15.13%K +22.17%G +10.56%	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -30.94%E -23.80%K -103.12%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-06 22:40
TABtouch🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV +47.66%E +15.13%K +22.17%G +10.56%	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -30.94%E -23.80%K -103.12%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-06 22:40
Virgin Bet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV +47.66%E +15.13%K +22.17%G +10.56%	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -30.94%E -23.80%K -103.12%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-06 22:40
LeoVegas🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV +45.31%E +14.62%K +21.58%G +9.78%	1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -32.00%E -25.00%K -114.29%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-06-06 22:40
FanDuel🎯	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV +23.75%E +9.00%K +14.48%G +3.44%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -21.91%E -14.90%K -46.61%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-06 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV +23.28%E +8.85%K +14.28%G +3.33%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -20.31%E -13.54%K -40.63%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-06 22:39
Unibet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +19.53%E +7.66%K +12.60%G +2.46%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -21.38%E -14.44%K -44.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-06 22:39
DraftKings🎯	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +19.06%E +7.50%K +12.38%G +2.36%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -20.31%E -13.54%K -40.63%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-06 22:39
Paddy Power🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +17.19%E +6.87%K +11.46%G +1.97%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -18.72%E -12.23%K -35.32%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 22:38
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +17.19%E +6.87%K +11.46%G +1.97%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -20.31%E -13.54%K -40.63%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-06 22:39
Grosvenor🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV +16.25%E +6.55%K +10.98%G +1.78%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -21.38%E -14.44%K -44.53%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-06 22:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +12.50%E +5.21%K +8.93%G +1.12%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -17.12%E -10.98%K -30.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-06 22:38
Fliff🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV +12.50%E +5.21%K +8.93%G +1.12%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -19.78%E -13.10%K -38.79%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-06 22:39
Pinnacle🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%EV -9.06%E -4.67%K -9.64%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%EV +3.06%E +1.58%K +3.26%G +0.100%	3.1%	2026-06-06 22:29
Bovada🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -9.53%E -4.94%K -10.25%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV +2.53%E +1.31%K +2.72%G +0.069%	3.6%	2026-06-06 22:36
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -10.47%E -5.48%K -11.50%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +1.47%E +0.769%K +1.61%G +0.024%	4.7%	2026-06-06 22:35
BetUS🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -10.47%E -5.48%K -11.50%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +1.47%E +0.769%K +1.61%G +0.024%	4.7%	2026-06-06 22:38
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.94%E -5.76%K -12.15%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.937%E +0.493%K +1.04%G +0.010%	5.3%	2026-06-06 22:35
Neds🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.94%E -5.76%K -12.15%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.937%E +0.493%K +1.04%G +0.010%	5.3%	2026-06-06 22:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.94%E -5.76%K -12.15%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.937%E +0.493%K +1.04%G +0.010%	5.3%	2026-06-06 22:29
SportsBet🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -11.41%E -6.04%K -12.82%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV +3.59%E +1.84%K +3.78%G +0.136%	4.2%	2026-06-06 22:36
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -12.34%E -6.60%K -14.19%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +3.59%E +1.84%K +3.78%G +0.136%	4.8%	2026-06-06 22:19
Bet Right🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -12.34%E -6.60%K -14.19%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +2.53%E +1.31%K +2.72%G +0.069%	5.3%	2026-06-06 22:19
Coolbet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -14.22%E -7.77%K -17.13%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV +8.38%E +4.11%K +8.05%G +0.674%	3.7%	2026-06-06 15:09
TAB🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -15.63%E -8.68%K -19.53%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +6.25%E +3.13%K +6.25%G +0.391%	5.6%	2026-06-06 16:08
PlayUp🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -15.63%E -8.68%K -19.53%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV +5.19%E +2.62%K +5.29%G +0.275%	6.1%	2026-06-06 02:30
BetAnything🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -15.63%E -8.68%K -19.53%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +3.59%E +1.84%K +3.78%G +0.136%	6.8%	2026-06-06 22:36
Betr (AU)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -15.63%E -8.68%K -19.53%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV +2.00%E +1.04%K +2.17%G +0.043%	7.6%	2026-06-06 19:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%	2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%	0.3%	2026-06-06 22:37
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.84I 35.21%NM 34.56%	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.44%	1.9%	2026-06-06 22:40
Kalshi◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%	7.0%	2026-06-06 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 36.93%	1.30I 76.92%NM 63.07%	22.0%	2026-06-06 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 26.83%	1.10I 90.91%NM 73.17%	24.2%	2026-06-06 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.1%	2026-06-06 22:29