The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Brett Bye v Taylor Michels

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brett Bye (Local)

Prediction 65.97%1.52fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -4.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.48%65.97%65.09%68.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.461.461.4870.42%68.49%68.49%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Taylor Michels (Visit)

Prediction 34.03%2.94fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.77%34.03%34.91%35.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.762.703.0537.74%36.21%37.04%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brett Bye (Local): 65.97%; Taylor Michels (Visit): 34.03%. For Taylor Michels (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -6.32%E -4.45%K -15.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV +3.78%E +1.24%K +1.84%G +0.070%3.2%2026-05-02 23:20
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -2.36%E -1.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -6.09%E -2.21%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 05:41
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.36%E -1.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.13%E -3.01%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.68%E -2.52%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.83%E -3.71%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 23:00
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.68%E -2.52%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.83%E -3.71%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.