Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brendan Allen v Christian Leroy Duncan

2026-10-11 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brendan Allen (Local)

Prediction 59.22%1.69fair odd

EV +0.079%

Edge +0.047%

Kelly +0.115%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.11%59.22%59.37%61.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.511.581.541.6966.23%63.29%64.94%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christian Leroy Duncan (Visit)

Prediction 40.78%2.45fair odd

EV -2.94%

Edge -1.24%

Kelly -2.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.82%40.78%40.63%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.292.252.3844.44%43.60%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Brendan Allen (Local): 59.22%; Christian Leroy Duncan (Visit): 40.78%. For Brendan Allen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.689. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.690, producing a positive expected value of +0.079%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV +0.079%E +0.047%K +0.115%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-10-01 22:29
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.80%E -5.72%K -16.30%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-10-01 18:44
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -10.58%E -7.01%K -20.74%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -2.94%E -1.24%K -2.13%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-01 18:43

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.99%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.16%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%	6.4%	2026-10-01 22:50