Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brady Hiestand v Rinya Nakamura

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:40 UTC

Final: Brady Hiestand 1–0 Rinya Nakamura

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brady Hiestand (Local)

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd

EV +4.09%

Edge +0.974%

Kelly +1.28%

Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.65%24.62%25.07%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.943.984.2028.57%25.35%25.16%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rinya Nakamura (Visit)

Prediction 75.22%1.33fair odd

EV -2.22%

Edge -1.71%

Kelly -7.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.92%75.38%74.93%77.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.261.251.3087.72%79.62%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brady Hiestand (Local): 24.78%; Rinya Nakamura (Visit): 75.22%. For Brady Hiestand (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Virgin Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:04
TABtouch🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:04
Unibet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:05
BetRivers🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:00
betPARX🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:00
Bally Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 17:00
Bet Right🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 23:20
NordicBet🎯	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV +2.85%E +0.687%K +0.905%G +0.026%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -5.98%E -4.78%K -23.92%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-26 20:50
Coolbet🎯	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV +2.85%E +0.687%K +0.905%G +0.026%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -5.98%E -4.78%K -23.92%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-26 22:04
Betsson🎯	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV +0.371%E +0.092%K +0.122%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -7.48%E -6.08%K -32.54%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-26 20:50
BetMGM🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.868%E -0.217%K -0.289%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.47%E -3.52%K -16.57%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-26 19:05
Betway🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.868%E -0.217%K -0.289%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.98%E -4.78%K -23.92%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-25 11:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.868%E -0.217%K -0.289%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.98%E -4.78%K -23.92%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-26 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -2.11%E -0.533%K -0.714%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -6.73%E -5.43%K -28.05%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-26 17:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.35%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.23%E -4.15%K -20.10%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-24 12:40
Pinnacle🎯	3.88I 25.77%NM 25.10%EV -3.84%E -0.990%K -1.33%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.90%EV -2.22%E -1.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-09-26 23:30
Bovada🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -2.97%E -2.30%K -10.24%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-26 23:20
DraftKings🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.72%E -2.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-26 23:30
888sport🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.47%E -3.52%K -16.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 23:35
ReBet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.97%E -2.30%K -10.24%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 23:24
Caesars🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.97%E -2.30%K -10.24%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 23:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.72%E -2.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-26 23:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -8.55%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -2.22%E -1.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-26 23:25
BetUS🎯	3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -9.05%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -2.22%E -1.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 23:25
BetAnything🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -9.54%E -2.61%K -3.60%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -2.97%E -2.30%K -10.24%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-26 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.54%E -2.61%K -3.60%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.72%E -2.91%K -13.29%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-26 23:25
Grosvenor🎯	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -9.54%E -2.61%K -3.60%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 76.20%EV -14.25%E -12.50%K -101.80%G +0.000%	15.1%	2026-09-26 17:05
TAB🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.22%E -1.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-26 22:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86%	1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14%	0.3%	2026-09-26 23:30
Novig◎	4.17I 23.98%NM 23.91%	1.31I 76.34%NM 76.09%	0.3%	2026-09-26 23:30
Matchbook◎	4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%	1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%	1.3%	2026-09-26 23:35
ProphetX◎	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.87%	1.26I 79.37%NM 77.13%	2.9%	2026-09-26 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.73%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.39%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%	6.7%	2026-09-26 17:12