The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Borislav Nikolić v Mark Vologdin

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:53 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borislav Nikolić (Local)

Prediction 64.38%1.55fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.56%64.39%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.481.5170.42%67.60%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mark Vologdin (Visit)

Prediction 35.62%2.81fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.411%
Kelly +0.635%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.44%35.61%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.672.652.8439.22%37.39%37.74%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Borislav Nikolić (Local): 64.38%; Mark Vologdin (Visit): 35.62%. For Mark Vologdin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -6.65%E -4.59%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV +1.17%E +0.411%K +0.635%G +0.007%4.2%2026-08-01 15:49
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -7.94%E -5.55%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV +0.812%E +0.287%K +0.444%G +0.004%5.3%2026-08-01 15:50
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.65%E -4.59%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.256%E -0.092%K -0.142%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.30%E -5.07%K -16.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.04%E -0.741%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 15:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.30%E -5.07%K -16.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.04%E -0.741%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 15:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -2.39%E -0.874%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-01 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%EV -2.79%E -1.85%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.61%EV -2.75%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-01 15:50
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -4.08%E -2.74%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -2.75%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-01 15:49
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-01 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.08%E -2.74%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-31 21:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.37%E -3.65%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.65%E -4.59%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 10:14
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -4.53%E -1.69%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 10:19
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -5.24%E -1.97%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 14:04
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-31 21:49
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-31 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 15:50
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:10
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.72%E -3.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:10
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.67%E -2.55%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 08:14
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 01:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-31 12:30
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-31 09:20
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.43%E -2.29%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 15:50
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -8.58%E -6.05%K -20.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.92%2.85I 35.09%NM 35.08%0.0%2026-08-01 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-08-01 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-08-01 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-08-01 15:50
ProphetX◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-08-01 15:45
Polymarket◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-01 15:20
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-08-01 13:35
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-08-01 15:45
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.86%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.14%7.8%2026-08-01 15:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.60%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.56%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.4%2026-08-01 15:44

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