Language:English
Bolaji Oki v Manoel Sousa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bolaji Oki (Local)
Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV +16.01%
Edge +4.00%
Kelly +5.34%
Growth +0.855%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%29.48%28.65%40.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.253.253.334.0044.44%30.79%30.08%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Manoel Sousa (Visit)
Prediction 71.00%1.41fair odd
EV +11.47%
Edge +7.30%
Kelly +20.11%
Growth +2.31%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.06%70.52%71.35%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.341.331.5781.97%74.80%75.47%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bolaji Oki (Local): 29.00%; Manoel Sousa (Visit): 71.00%. For Bolaji Oki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.01%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -33.29%E -14.48%K -25.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV +11.47%E +7.30%K +20.11%G +2.31% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -33.29%E -14.48%K -25.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV +11.47%E +7.30%K +20.11%G +2.31% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -34.74%E -15.44%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV +10.76%E +6.89%K +19.21%G +2.07% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -15.89%E -5.48%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -0.604%E -0.432%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 22:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -20.24%E -7.36%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -0.604%E -0.432%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -18.79%E -6.71%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -2.73%E -2.00%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 22:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.44%E -2.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 22:41 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.44%E -2.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 03:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.09%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.44%E -2.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-10 08:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.44%E -2.53%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.15%E -3.08%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.15%E -3.08%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.52%EV +2.38%E +0.674%K +0.941%G +0.022% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.48%EV -4.86%E -3.63%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-14 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.86%E -3.63%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 22:42 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.51%E +0.432%K +0.604%G +0.009% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.57%E -4.19%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 22:42 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +0.641%E +0.185%K +0.259%G +0.002% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.57%E -4.19%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 22:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV +0.351%E +0.101%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -5.57%E -4.19%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 22:42 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.57%E -4.19%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.57%E -4.19%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.28%E -4.76%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.28%E -4.76%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.28%E -4.76%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.28%E -4.76%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 22:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -15.89%E -5.48%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.72%EV -6.28%E -4.76%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -6.99%E -5.34%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 22:42 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.51%E +0.432%K +0.604%G +0.009% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.70%E -5.93%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:41 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.70%E -5.93%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 22:41 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +1.51%E +0.432%K +0.604%G +0.009% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.41%E -6.52%K -29.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 22:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -8.41%E -6.52%K -29.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +5.86%E +1.61%K +2.21%G +0.130% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -9.12%E -7.13%K -32.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 22:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +4.41%E +1.23%K +1.70%G +0.075% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +4.41%E +1.23%K +1.70%G +0.075% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +4.41%E +1.23%K +1.70%G +0.075% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV +0.061%E +0.018%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 22:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.83%E -7.74%K -36.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -11.25%E -9.00%K -45.02%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +16.01%E +4.00%K +5.34%G +0.855% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -13.38%E -10.97%K -60.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.44% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.56% | -0.1% | 2026-03-14 22:44 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-03-14 22:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88% | 3.1% | 2026-03-14 22:42 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35% | 13.8% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35% | 13.8% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.33% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.67% | 14.6% | 2026-03-14 22:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.65% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 21:35 |