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Bolaji Oki v Daniel Santos

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:45 UTC

Final: Bolaji Oki 0–1 Daniel Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bolaji Oki (Local)

Prediction 49.10%2.04fair odd
EV +0.661%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.629%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.70%49.13%48.95%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.931.932.0556.50%51.89%51.81%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daniel Santos (Visit)

Prediction 50.90%1.96fair odd
EV -0.751%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.790%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%50.87%51.05%53.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.861.861.9558.48%53.68%53.76%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bolaji Oki (Local): 49.10%; Daniel Santos (Visit): 50.90%. For Bolaji Oki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.661%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +0.661%E +0.322%K +0.629%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.39%E -4.66%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:29
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -0.812%E -0.402%K -0.796%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -9.91%E -5.60%K -12.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -2.29%E -1.15%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 14:40
ReBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -2.78%E -1.40%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 14:40
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.36%EV -3.27%E -1.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.64%EV -2.28%E -1.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-24 14:40
Coolbet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.27%E -1.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -4.31%E -2.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 14:40
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.25%E -2.18%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 05:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.25%E -2.18%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 15:17
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.25%E -2.18%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.25%E -2.18%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.74%E -2.44%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 05:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.74%E -2.44%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.33%E -2.87%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:17
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.74%E -2.44%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.33%E -2.87%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:17
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.74%E -2.44%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.33%E -2.87%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:17
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.77%E -0.916%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 05:05
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:17
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:18
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:18
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:17
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.23%E -2.71%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.84%E -3.16%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:17
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.72%E -2.98%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.28%E -1.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -6.21%E -3.25%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.33%E -2.87%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -7.20%E -3.81%K -8.08%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -1.77%E -0.916%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 14:25
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -7.69%E -4.09%K -8.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -2.28%E -1.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 14:10
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -8.18%E -4.37%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -0.751%E -0.385%K -0.790%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 14:05
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.18%E -4.37%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.82%E -2.58%K -5.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 14:40
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.14%E -5.54%K -12.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.86%E -3.75%K -8.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 05:05
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.14%E -5.54%K -12.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.86%E -3.75%K -8.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 05:25
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.14%EV -13.09%E -7.39%K -17.00%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 50.86%EV -12.97%E -7.58%K -18.26%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-23 15:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.03I 49.26%NM 49.25%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.75%0.0%2026-10-24 14:30
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-10-24 13:50
Polymarket◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-24 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.37%1.3%2026-10-24 14:30
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.25%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.75%1.5%2026-10-24 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.25%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.75%1.5%2026-10-24 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62%1.8%2026-10-24 14:40
Novig◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-10-24 14:40
ProphetX◎1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%4.4%2026-10-24 14:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.77%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.40%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.0%2026-10-24 11:35

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