The School of Odds
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Bogdan Guskov v Jan Blachowicz

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bogdan Guskov (Local)

Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd
EV -0.388%
Edge -0.215%
Kelly -0.484%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.26%55.94%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.671.8062.50%59.20%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jan Blachowicz (Visit)

Prediction 44.66%2.24fair odd
EV +2.72%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%44.74%44.06%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.122.3048.78%47.07%47.17%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bogdan Guskov (Local): 55.34%; Jan Blachowicz (Visit): 44.66%. For Jan Blachowicz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.72%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -11.46%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +2.72%E +1.18%K +2.09%G +0.057%6.0%2026-04-05 20:01
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -7.03%E -4.18%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV +1.38%E +0.607%K +1.08%G +0.015%3.6%2026-05-02 13:56
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.75%E -0.795%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 03:29
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.69%E -5.27%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.98%E -1.85%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 16:14
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.69%E -5.27%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.98%E -1.85%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -9.24%E -5.64%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -3.98%E -1.85%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-23 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:29
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:34
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:29
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:30
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.05%E -1.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 01:00
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.26%E -2.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.26%E -2.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -4.81%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 08:09
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -8.00%E -3.88%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.388%E -0.215%K -0.484%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 00:25
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.388%E -0.215%K -0.484%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 00:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 36.36%1.00I 100.00%NM 63.64%57.1%2026-05-01 00:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.4%2026-04-20 16:40