Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Biaggio Ali Walsh v Dash Harris

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Biaggio Ali Walsh (Local)

Prediction 76.85%1.30fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.672%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.66%76.85%76.85%79.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.241.2981.97%80.16%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dash Harris (Visit)

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +6.50%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%23.15%23.15%25.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.104.004.6026.32%24.39%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Biaggio Ali Walsh (Local): 76.85%; Dash Harris (Visit): 23.15%. For Dash Harris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -6.25%E -5.12%K -28.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +6.50%E +1.41%K +1.81%G +0.117%3.7%2026-04-11 22:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 22:14
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.71%E -3.80%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 22:15
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -0.867%E -0.672%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.