The School of OddsBenoit Saint-Denis v Paddy Pimblett
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Benoit Saint-Denis (Local)
Odds
1.6261.73%Min
1.6760.03%Mean
1.6660.24%Median
1.7457.47%Max
Consensus probabilities
54.09%1.849Min
58.31%1.715Max
56.40%1.773Mean
56.16%1.781Median
56.19%1.780IQM
56.44%1.772Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.74 under the IQM model: 56.19%
EV -2.23%Edge -1.28%Kelly -3.01%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Paddy Pimblett (Visit)
Odds
2.0548.78%Min
2.2145.21%Mean
2.2344.84%Median
2.3043.48%Max
Consensus probabilities
41.69%2.399Min
45.91%2.178Max
43.60%2.293Mean
43.84%2.281Median
43.81%2.283IQM
43.56%2.295Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.30 under the IQM model: 43.81%
EV +0.758%Edge +0.329%Kelly +0.583%Growth +0.004%
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Benoit Saint-Denis (Local) | Paddy Pimblett (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 1.65I 60.61% NM 58.23%EV -7.28% E -4.41% K -11.20% G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48% NM 41.77%EV +0.758% E +0.329% K +0.583% G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-07-02 20:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.65I 60.61% NM 58.23%EV -7.28% E -4.41% K -11.20% G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48% NM 41.77%EV +0.758% E +0.329% K +0.583% G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-07-02 20:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.65I 60.61% NM 58.23%EV -7.28% E -4.41% K -11.20% G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48% NM 41.77%EV +0.758% E +0.329% K +0.583% G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| TABtouch | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| Grosvenor | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| Unibet | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| betPARX | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| Bally Bet | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-02 14:35 |
| SportsBet | 1.63I 61.35% NM 58.31%EV -8.41% E -5.16% K -13.34% G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86% NM 41.69%EV -0.118% E -0.052% K -0.092% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 02:50 |
| Bovada | 1.68I 59.52% NM 57.47%EV -5.60% E -3.33% K -8.23% G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05% NM 42.53%EV -0.556% E -0.245% K -0.438% G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-05 00:06 |
| FanDuel | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.25%EV -8.97% E -5.54% K -14.47% G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25% NM 41.75%EV -0.995% E -0.440% K -0.789% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 07:45 |
| LeoVegas | 1.64I 60.98% NM 57.84%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 42.16%EV -1.43% E -0.637% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 19:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -8.97% E -5.54% K -14.47% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -1.43% E -0.637% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 00:37 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -8.97% E -5.54% K -14.47% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -1.43% E -0.637% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 00:39 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69I 59.17% NM 56.89%EV -5.04% E -2.98% K -7.30% G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84% NM 43.11%EV -2.31% E -1.04% K -1.88% G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 00:50 |
| DraftKings | 1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.47% E -2.63% K -6.39% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 00:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.47% E -2.63% K -6.39% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 18:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -5.60% E -3.33% K -8.23% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 14:09 |
| Neds | 1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -5.60% E -3.33% K -8.23% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 14:10 |
| TAB | 1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.16% E -3.69% K -9.19% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-26 11:00 |
| 888sport | 1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.16% E -3.69% K -9.19% G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.62% E -1.65% K -3.02% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 23:49 |
| Caesars | 1.71I 58.48% NM 56.04%EV -3.91% E -2.29% K -5.51% G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87% NM 43.96%EV -4.50% E -2.06% K -3.81% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.74I 57.47% NM 55.38%EV -2.23% E -1.28% K -3.01% G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30% NM 44.62%EV -5.38% E -2.49% K -4.63% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 00:39 |
| Bet Right | 1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -4.47% E -2.63% K -6.39% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -5.81% E -2.70% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 00:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -4.47% E -2.63% K -6.39% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -5.81% E -2.70% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 02:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -6.16% E -3.69% K -9.19% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -5.81% E -2.70% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 00:45 |
| BetMGM | 1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -6.16% E -3.69% K -9.19% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -5.81% E -2.70% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 00:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.69I 59.17% NM 55.64%EV -5.04% E -2.98% K -7.30% G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17% NM 44.36%EV -7.13% E -3.36% K -6.36% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 02:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.69I 59.17% NM 55.64%EV -5.04% E -2.98% K -7.30% G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17% NM 44.36%EV -7.13% E -3.36% K -6.36% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 11:54 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.66I 60.24% NM 55.85%EV -6.72% E -4.05% K -10.18% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 44.15%EV -8.00% E -3.81% K -7.28% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-05 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66I 60.24% NM 55.85%EV -6.72% E -4.05% K -10.18% G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62% NM 44.15%EV -8.00% E -3.81% K -7.28% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-05 00:09 |
| BetAnything | 1.74I 57.47% NM 54.09%EV -2.23% E -1.28% K -3.01% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 45.91%EV -10.19% E -4.97% K -9.71% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 13:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.64I 60.98% NM 55.56%EV -7.84% E -4.78% K -12.26% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 44.44%EV -10.19% E -4.97% K -9.71% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-05 02:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Benoit Saint-Denis (Local) | Paddy Pimblett (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.75I 57.14% | 2.27I 44.05% | 1.2% | 2026-07-03 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.78I 56.18% | 2.22I 45.05% | 1.2% | 2026-07-05 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.78I 56.18% | 2.22I 45.05% | 1.2% | 2026-07-05 00:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.78I 56.18% | 2.22I 45.05% | 1.2% | 2026-07-05 00:45 |
| Kalshi | 1.82I 54.95% | 2.13I 46.95% | 1.9% | 2026-06-30 14:49 |
| ProphetX | 1.74I 57.47% | 2.17I 46.08% | 3.6% | 2026-07-05 03:35 |
| Novig | 1.74I 57.47% | 2.02I 49.50% | 7.0% | 2026-07-05 03:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72I 58.14% | 2.14I 46.73% | 50.00I 2.00% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 11:59 |