Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bella Mir v Alex Apodaca

2026-08-25 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bella Mir (Local)

Prediction 90.84%1.10fair odd

EV -2.80%

Edge -2.62%

Kelly -40.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.69%90.82%90.84%92.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.051.051.0798.04%95.34%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex Apodaca (Visit)

Prediction 9.16%10.91fair odd

EV +15.08%

Edge +1.20%

Kelly +1.30%

Growth +0.197%

assuming max odds 12.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.65%9.18%9.16%11.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.0010.1810.5012.5612.50%9.83%9.52%7.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bella Mir (Local): 90.84%; Alex Apodaca (Visit): 9.16%. For Alex Apodaca (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.91. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.56, producing a positive expected value of +15.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.35%EV -5.53%E -5.32%K -138.23%G +0.000%	12.56I 7.96%NM 7.65%EV +15.08%E +1.20%K +1.30%G +0.197%	4.1%	2026-08-24 14:44
Pinnacle🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.71%EV -4.62%E -4.40%K -92.41%G +0.000%	11.62I 8.61%NM 8.29%EV +6.47%E +0.557%K +0.609%G +0.039%	3.8%	2026-08-24 12:24
Unibet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.62%E -4.40%K -92.41%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -3.79%E -0.361%K -0.399%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-24 13:54
Grosvenor🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.62%E -4.40%K -92.41%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -3.79%E -0.361%K -0.399%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-24 13:54
TABtouch🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.62%E -4.40%K -92.41%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -3.79%E -0.361%K -0.399%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-24 13:53
BetMGM🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.71%E -3.50%K -61.87%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -12.96%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-24 06:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.62%E -4.40%K -92.41%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -12.96%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-24 06:15
FanDuel🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.27%EV -2.80%E -2.62%K -40.06%G +0.000%	8.90I 11.24%NM 10.73%EV -18.45%E -2.07%K -2.34%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-24 06:15
ReBet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 88.69%EV -7.35%E -7.20%K -367.29%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -26.70%E -3.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-08-24 14:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.93%	10.53I 9.50%NM 9.07%	4.7%	2026-08-24 14:44
ProphetX◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.14%	9.60I 10.42%NM 9.86%	5.7%	2026-08-24 14:14