The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bella Mir v Alex Apodaca

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 00:43 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bella Mir (Local)

Prediction 93.94%1.06fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -3.15%
Kelly -108.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.37%93.94%93.98%94.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.021.021.0398.04%97.72%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex Apodaca (Visit)

Prediction 6.06%16.49fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.198%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.99%6.06%6.02%8.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.8014.8615.9116.009.26%6.73%6.29%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bella Mir (Local): 93.94%; Alex Apodaca (Visit): 6.06%. For Alex Apodaca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 16.00, with an expected value of -2.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.25%E -3.15%K -108.20%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV -2.98%E -0.186%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-25 14:19
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.25%E -3.15%K -108.20%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV -2.98%E -0.186%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-25 14:19
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.25%E -3.15%K -108.20%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV -2.98%E -0.186%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-25 14:19
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -2.98%E -0.186%K -0.198%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.98%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%15.91I 6.29%NM 6.02%EV -3.52%E -0.221%K -0.236%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-26 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV -6.01%E -0.388%K -0.414%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-26 00:39
BetAnything🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -9.04%E -0.603%K -0.646%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-26 00:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -24.20%E -1.94%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 00:09
ReBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.37%EV -4.19%E -4.10%K -209.27%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.63%EV -34.51%E -3.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-25 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.04I 96.15%NM 96.48%28.50I 3.51%NM 3.52%-0.3%2026-08-26 00:19
Novig◎1.05I 95.24%NM 93.61%15.38I 6.50%NM 6.39%1.7%2026-08-26 00:40
ProphetX◎1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%2.6%2026-08-26 00:34