Language:English
Belal Muhammad v Gabriel Bonfim
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Belal Muhammad (Local)
Prediction 50.99%1.96fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.823%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.00%50.90%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.851.851.9356.18%53.99%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Bonfim (Visit)
Prediction 49.01%2.04fair odd
EV +0.469%
Edge +0.229%
Kelly +0.446%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%49.00%49.10%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.951.952.0554.05%51.40%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belal Muhammad (Local): 50.99%; Gabriel Bonfim (Visit): 49.01%. For Gabriel Bonfim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.469%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.22%E -4.56%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +0.469%E +0.229%K +0.446%G +0.002% | 4.3% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.98%E -0.991%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.20%E -3.95%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.98%E -0.991%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.20%E -3.95%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.98%E -0.991%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -2.61%E -1.37%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -2.96%E -1.50%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.16%E -2.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -2.96%E -1.50%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -2.96%E -1.50%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -3.45%E -1.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.45%E -1.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -3.45%E -1.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -3.45%E -1.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -3.45%E -1.75%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.94%E -2.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.94%E -2.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.94%E -2.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.94%E -2.01%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.43%E -2.27%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.59%E -0.823%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.41%E -2.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-07 02:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -2.61%E -1.37%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -5.41%E -2.80%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.10%E -1.09%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.90%E -3.07%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.10%E -1.09%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.90%E -3.07%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -9.24%E -5.19%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -5.90%E -3.07%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.61%E -1.37%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-07 02:08 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.16%E -2.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-07 02:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-07 01:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.69%E -3.65%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.39%E -3.35%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.35%E -4.47%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.35%E -4.47%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-07 02:07 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.67%E -3.06%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.33%E -5.04%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-07 02:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00% | 0.0% | 2026-06-07 02:08 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.1% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.1% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.2% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73% | 1.6% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72% | 1.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70% | 2.3% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.05% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.95% | 2.7% | 2026-06-07 02:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.72% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.6% | 2026-06-07 01:59 |