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Bekzat Almakhan v Jean Matsumoto
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bekzat Almakhan (Local)
Prediction 38.34%2.61fair odd
EV +0.080%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%38.35%38.33%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6143.48%40.81%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jean Matsumoto (Visit)
Prediction 61.66%1.62fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%61.65%61.67%62.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.561.6065.36%63.95%63.90%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bekzat Almakhan (Local): 38.34%; Jean Matsumoto (Visit): 61.66%. For Bekzat Almakhan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.608. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.610, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.080%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.26%EV +0.080%E +0.031%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.74%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-27 13:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -0.304%E -0.117%K -0.190%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-27 13:18 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.22%E -0.871%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -2.60%E -1.03%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 13:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%EV -3.37%E -1.34%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-26 15:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 13:13 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 12:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.67%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.91%E -1.98%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-27 13:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -5.29%E -2.14%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 13:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -1.97%E -1.24%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.58%E -1.64%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.58%E -1.64%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.58%E -1.64%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-26 17:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 13:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-27 11:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -8.74%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -1.35%E -0.845%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 07:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.74%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.74%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.89%E -4.21%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-26 19:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -1.35%E -0.845%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 0.9% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 13:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 13:09 |
| Novig◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 1.4% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.23% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.35% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.43% | 8.5% | 2026-06-27 13:30 |