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Beatriz Mesquita v Montserrat Rendon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Beatriz Mesquita (Local)
Prediction 83.65%1.20fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -18.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.11%83.56%83.50%85.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.141.1689.29%87.88%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montserrat Rendon (Visit)
Prediction 16.35%6.11fair odd
EV +4.66%
Edge +0.729%
Kelly +0.863%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 6.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.89%16.44%16.50%19.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.555.856.006.4021.98%17.08%16.67%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Beatriz Mesquita (Local): 83.65%; Montserrat Rendon (Visit): 16.35%. For Montserrat Rendon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.11. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.66%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.63%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +4.66%E +0.729%K +0.863%G +0.040% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.63%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +4.66%E +0.729%K +0.863%G +0.040% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV +3.03%E +0.480%K +0.571%G +0.017% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -1.06%E -0.175%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-12 16:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 20:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.88%E -0.313%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -3.51%E -0.596%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 20:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.50%EV -2.97%E -2.56%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.50%EV -4.00%E -0.682%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 21:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.57%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.43%EV -4.33%E -0.741%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 21:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.97%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.97%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -6.79%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -10.06%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-12 12:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.06%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 05:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.06%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 05:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.64%E -4.07%K -33.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.06%E -1.83%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 00:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -14.14%E -2.69%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 21:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -14.14%E -2.69%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.89%EV -25.59%E -5.62%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-14 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 0.2% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.60% | 6.48I 15.43%NM 15.40% | 0.2% | 2026-03-14 21:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.09% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.91% | 2.0% | 2026-03-14 21:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 21:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.39% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.61% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 21:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.29% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.5% | 2026-03-14 14:10 |